The Real Threat to Ammunition Prices

Lately, there has been a surge of speculation about rising ammunition prices, driven by new U.S. tariffs and concerns about international supply chains. Dan Wolgin, CEO of Ammunition Depot, thinks it best put those fears to rest. “At Ammunition Depot, we don’t foresee any meaningful effects in the near future from the tariffs. Here’s why.”

The U.S. ammo supply chain is largely domestic. “Most of our ammunition inventory comes from American manufacturers,” Wolgin says. “That means we’re largely insulated from international trade disruptions. While tariffs may impact some imported goods, they have little to no bearing on the bulk of the U.S. ammunition market, for three key reasons: ammunition component materials like brass, lead, and powder are largely sourced and processed domestically; ammunition is loaded and manufactured here in the U.S.; and foreign ammunition is only a small percentage of our sales.”

Wolgin notes that while some headlines are causing anxiety, tariffs don’t move the needle for the core of the industry. “There are two current factors, neither of which is driving prices,” he says. “Antimony is a marginal component, a hardening agent used in bullet cores, but, as of December 2024, it is no longer being exported by China. Keep in mind that, on average, it makes up less than two percent of bullet composition. The U.S. can import it from Australia, Bolivia, and Turkey.”

This shift happened before the current tariff situation and is not driving pricing pressure today.

Smokeless powder, however, is a concern. “There has been a domestic shortage of smokeless powder for over two years,” he says. “It’s not an import issue, as most powder is produced in the U.S., but it could impact prices if the supply tightens further.”

He does note that prices for smokeless powder have recently risen by about 15 percent this year, but ammo prices haven’t moved, thanks to careful inventory management and domestic sourcing. “Bottom line: it’s a known factor, but it hasn’t driven price increases yet,” he says.

And though manufacturers have tried to raise prices, they haven’t stuck. “Ammo producers have made several attempts over the past two years to raise prices,” Wolgin says. “But in every instance, the market has rejected those increases. Unless there’s a real, sustained shift in cost structures (which hasn’t happened yet), price hikes are unlikely to take hold. For the last year ammo prices have gone lower, not higher.”

To Wolgin, the real threat is panic buying. “The only real risk to price stability is consumer-driven panic buying. If fear over tariffs or other rumors triggers a run on ammo, it could lead to short-term shortages and price spikes. That’s not supply-chain driven, it’s behavioral economics at play.”

His advice for consumers: Stay calm; stay informed; and buy smart.

“Despite international tension and economic noise, the American ammo market remains strong, stable, and domestic,” Wolgin says. At Ammunition Depot, we’re monitoring the landscape closely, and we see no legitimate reason to expect a rise in prices driven by tariffs or supply chain issues. So no, you don’t need to be tariffied.”